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| Brad Blog Dec 11, 2007 |
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| Wednesday, 12 December 2007 | |
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Creating Policy: Back to the Future
Posted by Brad Hirschfield in reaction the the recent National Intelligence Estimate claiming that Iran has halted its nuclear program Between the “I told you so’s “ in the Democratic camp and the “we never really said it” coming from the Republicans, there is lots of noise but little wisdom to be found among our political leaders right now. I understand that in a culture in which admitting that you have new things to learn makes you a “waffler”, while appreciating the wisdom of those with whom you disagree makes you weak, we ought not be surprised. But we can be disappointed and we must do better. Personally, I want to believe the new information from the latest National Intelligence Estimate and think that it fits with Iran’s need to heal its badly damaged economy without surrendering its sense of national pride. I think that we should carefully consider how to reconfigure our Iran policy in light of this new information, but I do not think that we should simply invite Mr. Ahmadinejahd to Washington for a cup of "holiday cheer" and a round of kumbaya! First of all, he is a serially irresponsible hate monger who loves to provoke other people and other nations for what appears to be no purpose other than the joy of the provocation. Secondly, he is a committed hard-liner on matters of faith and the importance of implementing his and his mentor, Ayatollah Khameini’s totalitarian understanding of Islam. And most importantly, we need to be aware that in much the same way the previous NIE appears to have been deeply flawed in its claim that Iran was pursuing nuclear arms beyond 2003, we may discover in three years that our new claim about the program’s suspension is in fact incorrect and they continue their pursuit of such weapons. It’s not unlike those sci-fi stories in which other beings light years away have sent a message to earth, but by the time it arrives, it is quite dated and may even be followed by a subsequent message telling us to disregard the earlier one! So how do we craft an intelligent policy, knowing that even good intelligence information often reaches us as “news” long after it is even true in the location which it originated? Simple: whatever side you are on about which is the best way to go, you’d better have a very good plan that anticipates your being wrong. This is not about determining which is the best way to go, as much as it is about the marriage of the most cogent points being made in each side of this debate. This is about carefully developing multiple responses to the multiple possibilities which we face and all of us appreciating that that is far from the inability to make a decision. In fact, it is the only way to create a policy toolbox that equips us for whatever may be coming down the road, instead of posturing pundits and politicos pointing out the weaknesses of the side with which they disagree. That’s actually the side you need most, because they carry the tools for the work we may need to do, even if our best current estimate says otherwise. When all you have is a hammer, the whole world looks like a nail. And that’s a pretty dangerous perspective if it turns out what you need is a wrench or a saw. |
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